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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lommel United beat AS Eupen 1-2 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.86 xG and Lommel United 1.60 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AS Eupen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Lommel United attack 1.34 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 43% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 32%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 61%, Lommel United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.22 PPG, Lommel United 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights