🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as AS Eupen defy the odds to beat Lommel United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Eupen beat Lommel United 3-2 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.19 xG and Lommel United 1.82 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Lommel United attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 25% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 52%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a AS Eupen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 56%, Lommel United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Lommel United's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with AS Eupen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights