AS Eupen 0-1 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Eupen at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Eupen host Lokeren-Temse at Kehrwegstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kehrwegstadion, AS Eupen have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lokeren-Temse have recorded 1W 2D 5L from 8 outings — 0.62 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
AS Eupen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.78 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.62. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
AS Eupen trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lokeren-Temse trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 75% versus Lokeren-Temse 12%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 88% | Lokeren-Temse 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.65 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 1.072 / defence 1.274 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.618 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.316. Data: 8 AS Eupen games / 8 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 51% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Lokeren-Temse 4.35. AS Eupen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Eupen as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Eupen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: AS Eupen 50% | Lokeren-Temse 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 51% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG AS Eupen 1.65 / Lokeren-Temse 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 1.072 / def 1.274 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.618 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: AS Eupen (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lokeren-Temse xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse?
AS Eupen 0 - 1 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 51% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Eupen the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.38 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 1.07x the league average against Lokeren-Temse's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lokeren-Temse's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Eupen Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.89
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.68
1.04
Lokeren-Temse xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
4%
22.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.04 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lokeren-Temse sit at 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Lokeren-Temse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Eupen's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Lokeren-Temse have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 0.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Eupen have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Lokeren-Temse in 12%.
Last 8 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
AS Eupen's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.33 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Lokeren-Temse specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
3
Draws
1
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when AS Eupen 1-1 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 100%, Lokeren-Temse 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (AS Eupen) and 0% (Lokeren-Temse).
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse in 33%; Lokeren-Temse in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Lokeren-Temse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 0% of Lokeren-Temse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of AS Eupen's recent games and 0% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lokeren-Temse defy the odds to beat AS Eupen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.65 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.04 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.07 / defence 1.27 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.62 / defence 1.15, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 51% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 23%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lokeren-Temse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 88%, Lokeren-Temse 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Eupen arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Lokeren-Temse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.