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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AS Eupen edge out KRC Genk II 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Eupen beat KRC Genk II 2-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.75 xG and KRC Genk II 0.93 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against KRC Genk II attack 0.86 / defence 1.34, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 55% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 18%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 60%, KRC Genk II 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

KRC Genk II's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Eupen arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.63. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights