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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AS Eupen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

K. Lierse S.K. beat AS Eupen 1-3 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.24 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.62 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.89 / defence 1.36 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 29% | Draw 24% | K. Lierse S.K. 46%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 54%, K. Lierse S.K. 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights