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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Eupen and Francs Borains share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 26, as AS Eupen and Francs Borains drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.46 xG and Francs Borains 1.05 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Francs Borains attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 47% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 27%, with AS Eupen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 59%, Francs Borains 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Francs Borains's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.25 PPG, Francs Borains 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights