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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Eupen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Francs Borains.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Eupen beat Francs Borains 3-1 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.14 xG and Francs Borains 1.74 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.89 / defence 1.44 against Francs Borains attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 23/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 25% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 51%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a AS Eupen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 54%, Francs Borains 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Francs Borains's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Eupen 0.72 PPG, Francs Borains 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Eupen win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights