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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Eupen and Beerschot VA share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 33, as AS Eupen and Beerschot VA drew 3-3 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 0.95 xG and Beerschot VA 1.11 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. AS Eupen beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beerschot VA outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Beerschot VA attack 1.04 / defence 0.75, drawn from 58/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 31% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 39%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 55%, Beerschot VA 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Eupen's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Eupen 1.31 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Eupen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights