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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 1-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.54 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.61 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/26 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 36% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 38%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 54%, Wolfsberger AC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights