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WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 19, as WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 0.90 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.63 / defence 0.88 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.40 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 34% | Wolfsberger AC 46%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 46%, Wolfsberger AC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights