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Stalemate at WSG Wattens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.05 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.68 / defence 0.95 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 32% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 38%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 48%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights