WSG Wattens 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) — WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, TSV Hartberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, TSV Hartberg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended WSG Wattens 0–3 TSV Hartberg — a TSV Hartberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 54% | TSV Hartberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.803 / defence 1.377 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.234 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.138. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack rating of 1.234, which lifts their away xG to 1.93. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 42 games and TSV Hartberg's last 42.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 22% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 54%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 4.48 | Draw 4.30 | TSV Hartberg 1.84. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.18 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 60% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 22% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.18 / TSV Hartberg 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.803 / def 1.377 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.234 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.93
TSV Hartberg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 22% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.23x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 42 games and TSV Hartberg's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
22%
4.48
23%
4.30
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.11
1.93
TSV Hartberg xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
14%
6.91
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
3%
30.93
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.93 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 13W 10D 29L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 18W 12D 22L from 52 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.27 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.85 PPG from their last 26 home games (5W 7D 14L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 6D 12L from their last 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.37 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
WSG Wattens (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 13W 10D 29L in their last 52 games (0.94 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.85 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.15 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won TSV Hartberg 5-0 WSG Wattens on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 58%, TSV Hartberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 62% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 31%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of WSG Wattens's games and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of WSG Wattens's matches and 62% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 69% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.93 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.80 / defence 1.38 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 22% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 54%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a WSG Wattens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 54%, TSV Hartberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.94 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.