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Dominant SCR Altach run riot with a 0-3 hammering of WSG Wattens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat WSG Wattens 0-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.52 xG and SCR Altach 1.03 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SCR Altach outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against SCR Altach attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 26%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 51%, SCR Altach 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SCR Altach's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.09 PPG, SCR Altach 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights