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Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out SCR Altach 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.44 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.74 / defence 1.07 against SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 39% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 30%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 48%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

SCR Altach's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.84 PPG, SCR Altach 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights