WSG Wattens 0-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and SCR Altach meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SCR Altach's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. WSG Wattens's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 53% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | SCR Altach 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.24 xG and SCR Altach 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.864 / defence 1.183 | SCR Altach attack 0.929 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 38% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | SCR Altach 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 40% | SCR Altach 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 38% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG WSG Wattens 1.24 / SCR Altach 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.864 / def 1.183 | SCR Altach attack 0.929 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SCR Altach xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kick off?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
WSG Wattens 0 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach part of?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 38% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both WSG Wattens and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.86) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.93x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.26
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
SCR Altach xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.11 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 17W 13D 32L from 62 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 11W 22D 29L across 62 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.89 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 8W 9D 14L from 31 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 11D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.85 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 17W 13D 32L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 22D 29L in their last 62 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or SCR Altach away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.06 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
4
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 3, SCR Altach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 55%, SCR Altach 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (WSG Wattens) and 55% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 32% of games; SCR Altach in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 48% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 55% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and SCR Altach tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat WSG Wattens 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat WSG Wattens 0-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.24 xG and SCR Altach 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. WSG Wattens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against SCR Altach attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 38% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, SCR Altach 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.03 PPG, SCR Altach 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.