🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out Ried 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat Ried 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.52 xG and Ried 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ried landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 50% | Draw 27% | Ried 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 54%, Ried 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Ried's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.29 PPG, Ried 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights