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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Red Bull Salzburg defy the odds to beat WSG Wattens 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat WSG Wattens 1-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 2.07 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 55% | Draw 21% | Red Bull Salzburg 24%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Red Bull Salzburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, Red Bull Salzburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights