WSG Wattens 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as WSG Wattens face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Red Bull Salzburg travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Red Bull Salzburg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Red Bull Salzburg's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of WSG Wattens's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Red Bull Salzburg have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for WSG Wattens.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 44% versus Red Bull Salzburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.05 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.637 / defence 0.904 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.151 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.194. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 WSG Wattens games / 26 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 20% | Red Bull Salzburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG WSG Wattens 1.05 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.637 / def 0.904 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.151 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Red Bull Salzburg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
WSG Wattens 0 - 0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 30% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (6 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 6W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.38
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.29
1.24
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.40
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.24 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 6D 22L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.11 PPG from 36 outings (23W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 4W 4D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.82 points per game from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.36 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 8W 6D 22L in their last 36 games (0.83 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 23W 7D 6L in their last 36 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.94 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.82 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg 2-3 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 41%, Red Bull Salzburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (WSG Wattens) and 53% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 41%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at WSG Wattens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 7, as WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.05 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.64 / defence 0.90 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.15 / defence 0.97, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.