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WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lask Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat Lask Linz 3-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.95 xG and Lask Linz 1.37 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.23 / defence 1.12 against Lask Linz attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 51% | Draw 22% | Lask Linz 27%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 54%, Lask Linz 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Lask Linz's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights