WSG Wattens 0-0 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Grazer AK meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's home record at Tivoli Stadion Tirol: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in WSG Wattens's favour (1.40 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.63 xG and Grazer AK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.952 / defence 1.047 | Grazer AK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.131. Data: 23 WSG Wattens games / 1 Grazer AK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 25% | Grazer AK 23%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Grazer AK 4.35. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 25% | Grazer AK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG WSG Wattens 1.63 / Grazer AK 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.952 / def 1.047 | Grazer AK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Grazer AK xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
WSG Wattens 0 - 0 Grazer AK.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK part of?
WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 52% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both WSG Wattens and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.95x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.85x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 23/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.05
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.64
1.01
Grazer AK xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
5%
21.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.01 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Grazer AK's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, WSG Wattens are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Grazer AK's attacking output running into WSG Wattens's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Grazer AK in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Grazer AK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grazer AK won 1-5 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
3
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
From 8 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Grazer AK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Grazer AK?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of WSG Wattens's games and 100% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of WSG Wattens's matches and 100% of Grazer AK's.
Do WSG Wattens and Grazer AK tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at WSG Wattens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens and Grazer AK finished level at 0-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.63 xG and Grazer AK 1.01 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Grazer AK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Grazer AK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 23/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 25% | Grazer AK 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 100%, Grazer AK 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, WSG Wattens arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. WSG Wattens managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.