WSG Wattens 2-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to face WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
WSG Wattens (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, WSG Wattens have posted 2W 1D 7L at Tivoli Stadion Tirol — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
FC BW Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward WSG Wattens. A 0.50 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with WSG Wattens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 48% versus FC BW Linz 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (WSG Wattens 44% | FC BW Linz 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.45 xG and FC BW Linz 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.839 / defence 1.215 | FC BW Linz attack 0.722 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 22 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 22%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | FC BW Linz 4.55. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 50% | FC BW Linz 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG WSG Wattens 1.45 / FC BW Linz 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.839 / def 1.215 | FC BW Linz attack 0.722 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC BW Linz xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
WSG Wattens 2 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz part of?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 49% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz?
Record (2 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 0 | FC BW Linz 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. FC BW Linz (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.84x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.72x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.41
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.34
0.89
FC BW Linz xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 0.89 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 5W 4D 16L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz's form line: 4W 10D 11L from 25 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.88 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.67 PPG from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 0.88 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 5W 4D 16L in their last 25 games (0.76 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 4W 10D 11L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or FC BW Linz away?
WSG Wattens's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.67 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.67 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 FC BW Linz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 58%, FC BW Linz 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (WSG Wattens) and 42% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games; FC BW Linz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 42% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 42% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out FC BW Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat FC BW Linz 2-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.45 xG and FC BW Linz 0.89 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against FC BW Linz attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 49% | Draw 29% | FC BW Linz 22%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 44%, FC BW Linz 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.76 PPG, FC BW Linz 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.