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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out WSG Wattens 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 2-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.40 xG and Austria Vienna 1.54 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.15 / defence 1.05 against Austria Vienna attack 1.16 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 41%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Austria Vienna 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights