🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Austria Klagenfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat Austria Klagenfurt 5-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.41 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.73 / defence 1.07 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 44% | Draw 33% | Austria Klagenfurt 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 48%, Austria Klagenfurt 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

WSG Wattens's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.82 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights