Wolfsberger AC 3-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC host WSG Wattens at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Lavanttal Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Wolfsberger AC) versus 1.20 (WSG Wattens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, WSG Wattens 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 57% versus WSG Wattens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 60% | WSG Wattens 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.72 xG and WSG Wattens 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.080 / defence 1.058 | WSG Wattens attack 0.891 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 54% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 20%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | WSG Wattens 5.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 40% | WSG Wattens 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 54% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.72 / WSG Wattens 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.080 / def 1.058 | WSG Wattens attack 0.891 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
WSG Wattens xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC 3 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 54% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Record (3 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.08x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.82
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.67
0.95
WSG Wattens xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
4%
28.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.95 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 23W 15D 25L from 63 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 33L across 63 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.33 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 8W 7D 16L from 31 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 9W 4D 18L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.14 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 15D 25L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 17W 13D 33L in their last 63 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or WSG Wattens away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.00 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 64%, WSG Wattens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Wolfsberger AC) and 58% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 52% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat WSG Wattens 3-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.72 xG and WSG Wattens 0.95 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against WSG Wattens attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 54% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 20%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 60%, WSG Wattens 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.33 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.