Wolfsberger AC 0-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wolfsberger AC at 1.60 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, TSV Hartberg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 70% and TSV Hartberg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 73% | TSV Hartberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.979 / defence 0.977 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.438. Data: 27 Wolfsberger AC games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 37%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | TSV Hartberg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.25 / TSV Hartberg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.979 / def 0.977 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
TSV Hartberg xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 30% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
30%
3.36
33%
3.01
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.41
TSV Hartberg xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.41 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 13W 8D 16L from 37 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 19L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.27 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 4W 4D 10L from 18 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.24 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 8D 19L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 0.89 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 78%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Wolfsberger AC and 56% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 0-3 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 30% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 37%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 73%, TSV Hartberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.27 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.