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SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolfsberger AC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat Wolfsberger AC 0-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.66 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against SCR Altach attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 45% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 59%, SCR Altach 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

SCR Altach's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights