Wolfsberger AC vs Ried – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ried (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wolfsberger AC face Ried.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Wolfsberger AC welcome Ried to Lavanttal-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Lavanttal-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ried — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ried's 1.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 5 for Ried and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–4 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ried trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 54% versus Ried 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 57% | Ried 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.39 xG and Ried 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.767 / defence 1.082 | Ried attack 1.033 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.379. Wolfsberger AC's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Wolfsberger AC games / 33 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 31% | Ried 38%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Ried 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Ried 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 31% | Draw 31% | Ried 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.39 / Ried 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.767 / def 1.082 | Ried attack 1.033 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Ried (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Ried xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance of winning, Ried a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Record (10 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 2 | Ried 5W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Ried (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.77x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
31%
3.24
31%
3.18
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.54
Ried xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
15.14
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.54 for Ried, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 12W 11D 21L from 44 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 17L across 44 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.07 PPG, Ried on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 8D 7L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.34 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 11D 21L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Ried have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Ried away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.32 PPG; Ried away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ried have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2026, when Ried won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Ried specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Ried have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Ried 4-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 50%, Ried 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wolfsberger AC) and 54% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 27% of games; Ried in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 68% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 54% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Ried tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ried in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.