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Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.68 xG and Ried 1.26 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Ried attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 47% | Draw 24% | Ried 29%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 56%, Ried 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Ried's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Ried winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights