Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Grazer AK travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Wolfsberger AC haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena.
Grazer AK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grazer AK away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.50 PPG, Grazer AK 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Wolfsberger AC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Grazer AK, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 58% versus Grazer AK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 58% | Grazer AK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.45 xG and Grazer AK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.022 / defence 1.031 | Grazer AK attack 0.950 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.145. Data: 22 Wolfsberger AC games / 22 Grazer AK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 44% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 29%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Grazer AK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Grazer AK 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 44% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.45 / Grazer AK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.022 / def 1.031 | Grazer AK attack 0.950 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Grazer AK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Lavanttal-Arena.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 44% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
Record (6 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 4W | Draws 1 | Grazer AK 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.67
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.12
Grazer AK xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.12 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 8D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. Wolfsberger AC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 1.12 PPG from 33 outings (9W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.24 PPG, Grazer AK on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wolfsberger AC's home form reads 6W 6D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Grazer AK have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (3W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Pre-Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Grazer AK away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.50 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
From 6 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Grazer AK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 50%, Grazer AK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wolfsberger AC) and 56% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Grazer AK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 44% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 56% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.