Wolfsberger AC 4-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Grazer AK travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grazer AK — All Games: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.93 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.67). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Grazer AK in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 67% and Grazer AK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 67% | Grazer AK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.91 xG and Grazer AK 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.301 / defence 1.006 | Grazer AK attack 0.729 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.018. Wolfsberger AC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Wolfsberger AC games / 3 Grazer AK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 65% | Draw 21% | Grazer AK 14%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Grazer AK 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Grazer AK 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 65% | Draw 21% | Grazer AK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 45% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.91 / Grazer AK 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.301 / def 1.006 | Grazer AK attack 0.729 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Grazer AK xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Wolfsberger AC 4 - 2 Grazer AK.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 65% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grazer AK's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.70
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.75
Grazer AK xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
48.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.75 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.00 PPG, Grazer AK on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Grazer AK in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Wolfsberger AC or Grazer AK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Grazer AK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Grazer AK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
From 6 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Grazer AK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wolfsberger AC at 67%, Grazer AK at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wolfsberger AC and 67% for Grazer AK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK in 33%; Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 33% of games; Grazer AK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 67% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 67% of Grazer AK's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Grazer AK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Grazer AK 4-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.91 xG and Grazer AK 0.75 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grazer AK outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.30 / defence 1.01 against Grazer AK attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 25/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 65% | Draw 21% | Grazer AK 14%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 67%, Grazer AK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.00 PPG, Grazer AK 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Grazer AK shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.