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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC BW Linz defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG and FC BW Linz 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against FC BW Linz attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 32% | FC BW Linz 19%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a FC BW Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 56%, FC BW Linz 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.52 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights