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Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.36 xG and Austria Vienna 1.58 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Austria Vienna attack 1.26 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 33% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 43%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 60%, Austria Vienna 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.62 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights