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Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Championship Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Austria Vienna attack 1.12 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 35% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 33%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 54%, Austria Vienna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.59 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights