Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Austria Vienna in Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Austria Vienna away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.30 for Austria Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 1W, Austria Vienna 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 4–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 58% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 60% | Austria Vienna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.078 / defence 1.057 | Austria Vienna attack 0.999 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 47% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Vienna 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 40% | Austria Vienna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 47% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.54 / Austria Vienna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.078 / def 1.057 | Austria Vienna attack 0.999 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna is a Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 47% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (1.08) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.00x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.58
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.60
1.07
Austria Vienna xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
5%
18.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.07 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 24W 16D 25L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 24W 21D 20L from 65 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.43 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.06 PPG from 32 outings (9W 7D 16L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 10W 9D 13L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 24W 16D 25L in their last 65 games (1.35 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 24W 21D 20L in their last 65 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.06 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 66%, Austria Vienna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wolfsberger AC) and 56% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 59% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 56% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.07 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 47% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 60%, Austria Vienna 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.35 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.