TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Hartberg plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in TSV Hartberg's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both TSV Hartberg and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus WSG Wattens 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | WSG Wattens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.51 xG and WSG Wattens 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 1.193 | WSG Wattens attack 1.014 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.378. Data: 33 TSV Hartberg games / 33 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 39%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | WSG Wattens 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 70% | WSG Wattens 20%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.51 / WSG Wattens 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / def 1.193 | WSG Wattens attack 1.014 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.67
WSG Wattens xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens part of?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 32% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 6W | Draws 2 | WSG Wattens 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (1.00) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (1.01x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
32%
3.16
30%
3.36
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.17
1.67
WSG Wattens xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.67 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 14D 14L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (13W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.21 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.26 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or WSG Wattens away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.23 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, WSG Wattens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (TSV Hartberg) and 54% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 27% of games; WSG Wattens in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 46% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 54% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.