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TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 7, as TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 0.90 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 24% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 49%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 45%, Wolfsberger AC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.39 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights