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Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.51 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 40%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 58%, Wolfsberger AC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.29 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights