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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SCR Altach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Across 7 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 4 draws in between.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 58% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 58% | SCR Altach 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.65 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.861 / defence 1.064 | SCR Altach attack 0.972 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | SCR Altach 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.

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