TSV Hartberg 2-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 2D 6L at PROfertil ARENA — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SCR Altach in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: TSV Hartberg 2W, SCR Altach 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 59% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 62% | SCR Altach 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG and SCR Altach 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.780 / defence 0.915 | SCR Altach attack 0.927 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.191. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 TSV Hartberg games / 29 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 31%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | SCR Altach 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 70% | SCR Altach 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.16 / SCR Altach 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.780 / def 0.915 | SCR Altach attack 0.927 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SCR Altach xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 38% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
Record (4 meetings): TSV Hartberg 2W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.78) and SCR Altach's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.93x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.21
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.17
1.01
SCR Altach xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.01 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 11D 15L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 1.00 PPG from 39 outings (8W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.00 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.90 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 15D 16L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.37 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 4, SCR Altach have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 53%, SCR Altach 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (TSV Hartberg) and 47% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 26% of games; SCR Altach in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 53% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 47% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 2-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG and SCR Altach 1.01 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against SCR Altach attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 31%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 62%, SCR Altach 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.28 PPG, SCR Altach 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.