TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 0.90 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for TSV Hartberg.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 53% and Red Bull Salzburg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 47% | Red Bull Salzburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.27 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.964 / defence 0.956 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.074 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.145. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 Red Bull Salzburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 34%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.27 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.964 / def 0.956 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.074 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Red Bull Salzburg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 38% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 2 | Red Bull Salzburg 7W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.96x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.51
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.18
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.18 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 12D 10L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. TSV Hartberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. Red Bull Salzburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.31 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.62 points per game from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.75 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Pre-Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 12D 10L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.06 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.62 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Red Bull Salzburg won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-3 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 62%, Red Bull Salzburg at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (TSV Hartberg) and 56% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 75% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.