🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.35 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 35%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Lask Linz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Lask Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.29 PPG, Lask Linz 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights