TSV Hartberg 1-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 3 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. TSV Hartberg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lask Linz haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lask Linz arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: TSV Hartberg 0W, Lask Linz 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Lask Linz 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 66% | Lask Linz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.33 xG and Lask Linz 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.986 / defence 0.967 | Lask Linz attack 0.964 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.192. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 Lask Linz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 30%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Lask Linz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lask Linz (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 50% | Lask Linz 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.33 / Lask Linz 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.986 / def 0.967 | Lask Linz attack 0.964 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Lask Linz xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 41% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Record (1 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (0.96x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
41%
2.47
29%
3.42
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.11
Lask Linz xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.11 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 12W 7D 13L from 32 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. TSV Hartberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 8L across 32 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. Lask Linz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.62 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 6W 3D 7L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.34 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Pre-Season
Lask Linz
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 7D 13L in their last 32 games (1.34 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 14W 10D 8L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.31 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.31 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 50%, Lask Linz 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (TSV Hartberg) and 38% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lask Linz in 38%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 31% of games; Lask Linz in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 44% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 38% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.33 xG and Lask Linz 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Lask Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 30%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 66%, Lask Linz 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.34 PPG, Lask Linz 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.