TSV Hartberg 1-1 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Grazer AK have collected 0.50 PPG across 4 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.50 for Grazer AK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Grazer AK in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 50% and Grazer AK 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 25% | Grazer AK 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.72 xG and Grazer AK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.887 / defence 1.092 | Grazer AK attack 0.890 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.030. Data: 25 TSV Hartberg games / 4 Grazer AK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 54% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 22%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Grazer AK 4.55. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Grazer AK 75% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 54% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.72 / Grazer AK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.887 / def 1.092 | Grazer AK attack 0.890 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Grazer AK xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Grazer AK.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 54% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Grazer AK (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.89x the league average against Grazer AK's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.89x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
The sample (25/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.20
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.00
Grazer AK xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
25.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.00 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grazer AK sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.25 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.50 for Grazer AK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
TSV Hartberg are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.50 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 0-3 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
0
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, Grazer AK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 50%, Grazer AK 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (TSV Hartberg) and 75% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Grazer AK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of TSV Hartberg's games and 75% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 75% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK finished level at 1-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.72 xG and Grazer AK 1.00 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Grazer AK attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 25/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 54% | Draw 24% | Grazer AK 22%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 25%, Grazer AK 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 0.25 PPG, Grazer AK 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grazer AK conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.