TSV Hartberg 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 44%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg at PROfertil ARENA this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Austria Vienna's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Austria Vienna 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 58% versus Austria Vienna 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 67% | Austria Vienna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.944 / defence 1.086 | Austria Vienna attack 0.867 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.101. Data: 24 TSV Hartberg games / 24 Austria Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 60% | Austria Vienna 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.35 / Austria Vienna 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.944 / def 1.086 | Austria Vienna attack 0.867 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Austria Vienna xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 44% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Record (4 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.66
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.39
1.04
Austria Vienna xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.04 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 9D 15L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (16W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.25 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (7W 2D 9L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.19 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 10D 10L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.22 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.28 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 56%, Austria Vienna 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (TSV Hartberg) and 39% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 28% of games; Austria Vienna in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 39% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 39% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 3, as TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.04 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Austria Vienna attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 29%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 67%, Austria Vienna 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.25 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.