Sturm Graz 4-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host WSG Wattens at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sturm Graz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while WSG Wattens have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
WSG Wattens trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 47% versus WSG Wattens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | WSG Wattens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.79 xG and WSG Wattens 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.086 / defence 0.851 | WSG Wattens attack 0.986 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.024. Data: 26 Sturm Graz games / 26 WSG Wattens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 59% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 17%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | WSG Wattens 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 30% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 59% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Sturm Graz 1.79 / WSG Wattens 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.086 / def 0.851 | WSG Wattens attack 0.986 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.86
WSG Wattens xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz 4 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 59% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Record (6 meetings): Sturm Graz 5W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (1.09) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
59%
1.71
25%
4.06
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.65
0.86
WSG Wattens xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
35.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.86 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 22W 10D 4L from 36 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 22L across 36 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 12W 4D 2L from 18 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 4W 2D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.86 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 22W 10D 4L in their last 36 games (2.11 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 8W 6D 22L in their last 36 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.22 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
WSG Wattens go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2021, when Sturm Graz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 33%, WSG Wattens 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Sturm Graz) and 56% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 44% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 56% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 4-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.79 xG and WSG Wattens 0.86 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.85 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 59% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 17%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 42%, WSG Wattens 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.