Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz at Merkur-Arena this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sturm Graz's 1.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Sturm Graz, 3 for Wolfsberger AC and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus Wolfsberger AC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | Wolfsberger AC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.33 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.183 / defence 0.928 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.621 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.378. Data: 33 Sturm Graz games / 33 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 69% | Draw 22% | Wolfsberger AC 9%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Wolfsberger AC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 70% | Wolfsberger AC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 69% | Draw 22% | Wolfsberger AC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 52% | xG Sturm Graz 2.33 / Wolfsberger AC 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.183 / def 0.928 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.621 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Wolfsberger AC xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 69% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (10 meetings): Sturm Graz 3W | Draws 4 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.62x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
69%
1.44
22%
4.54
9%
11.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.13
0.79
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
11.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
10%
10.30
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
119.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.79 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 43 games, going 21W 12D 10L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.02 PPG from 43 outings (11W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (4W 2D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 21W 12D 10L in their last 43 games (1.74 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.62 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 62%, Wolfsberger AC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sturm Graz) and 71% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sturm Graz's games and 57% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 71% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.