Sturm Graz 2-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 2D 2L at Merkur Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sturm Graz, 0 for TSV Hartberg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 48% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | TSV Hartberg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.60 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.043 / defence 0.946 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.022 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.118. Data: 23 Sturm Graz games / 23 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 26%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 3.85. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 20% | TSV Hartberg 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Sturm Graz 1.60 / TSV Hartberg 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.043 / def 0.946 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.022 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 49% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): Sturm Graz 2W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.04x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.01
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.68
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.08 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 19W 10D 4L from 33 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 14L across 33 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 10W 4D 2L from 16 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 6W 4D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.39 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 19W 10D 4L in their last 33 games (2.03 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 7D 14L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.12 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 31%, TSV Hartberg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sturm Graz) and 69% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 62% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 69% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 2-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.60 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 26%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 42%, TSV Hartberg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.