Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Merkur-Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.

Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Sturm Graz against 2.10 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sturm Graz lead 4W to 5W over the last 10 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Rapid Vienna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Rapid Vienna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 41% | Rapid Vienna 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.61 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.911 / defence 0.870 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.234 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.199. Rapid Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Sturm Graz games / 29 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Rapid Vienna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 50% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.

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