Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sturm Graz face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rapid Vienna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Rapid Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.70 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Rapid Vienna in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 50% | Rapid Vienna 52%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Sturm Graz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 0.92 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.035 / defence 0.802 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.211 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.195. Rapid Vienna bring a tight defence (rating 0.700, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sturm Graz's projected output down. Rapid Vienna have an above-average attack rating of 1.211, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 40 games and Rapid Vienna's last 40.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 28% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 3.61 | Draw 3.09 | Rapid Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 30% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 28% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sturm Graz 0.92 / Rapid Vienna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.035 / def 0.802 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.211 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Rapid Vienna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 28% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.03x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.21x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 40 games and Rapid Vienna's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
28%
3.61
32%
3.09
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.08
1.16
Rapid Vienna xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.16 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 31W 11D 8L from 50 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 19L across 50 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 18W 3D 4L from their last 25 home games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 10W 4D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.64 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 31W 11D 8L in their last 50 games (2.08 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.28 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 48%, Rapid Vienna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 52% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 72% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 0.92 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.03 / defence 0.80 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.21 / defence 0.70, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 28% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 40%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 50%, Rapid Vienna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.