Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.70 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Rapid Vienna in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 50% | Rapid Vienna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 0.92 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.035 / defence 0.802 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.211 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.195. Rapid Vienna's defence strength of 0.700 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Rapid Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Sturm Graz games / 40 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 28% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Rapid Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 30% | Rapid Vienna 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 28% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sturm Graz 0.92 / Rapid Vienna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.035 / def 0.802 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.211 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Rapid Vienna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 28% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.03x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.21x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
28%
3.61
32%
3.09
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.08
1.16
Rapid Vienna xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.16 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 31W 11D 8L from 50 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 19L across 50 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 18W 3D 4L from 25 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 10W 4D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.64 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 31W 11D 8L in their last 50 games (2.08 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.28 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 48%, Rapid Vienna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 52% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 0.92 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.03 / defence 0.80 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.21 / defence 0.70, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 28% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 40%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 50%, Rapid Vienna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.