Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Lask Linz at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 5D 0L at Merkur-Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lask Linz — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Lask Linz have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 57% versus Lask Linz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 38% | Lask Linz 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.06 xG and Lask Linz 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.853 / defence 0.888 | Lask Linz attack 1.329 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Lask Linz's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lask Linz have an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Sturm Graz games / 27 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 26% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 42%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Lask Linz 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Sturm Graz dominate the H2H record, yet Lask Linz are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 40% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 26% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Sturm Graz 1.06 / Lask Linz 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.853 / def 0.888 | Lask Linz attack 1.329 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lask Linz xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 26% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sturm Graz and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Record (10 meetings): Sturm Graz 5W | Draws 3 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
26%
3.88
32%
3.08
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.45
1.39
Lask Linz xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
15.55
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.39 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 10D 9L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.97 PPG from 37 outings (22W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.73 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sturm Graz's home form reads 7W 6D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.72 points per game from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.92 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 22W 7D 8L in their last 37 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.50 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Lask Linz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 56%, Lask Linz 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Sturm Graz) and 61% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sturm Graz's games and 61% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 61% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.